Gain fractions of future neutrino oscillation facilities over T2K and NOvA

Understand

We evaluate the probability of future neutrino oscillation facilities to discover leptonic CP violation and/or measure the neutrino mass hierarchy.

• We study how this probability is affected by positive or negative hints for these observables to be found at T2K and NOvA.
• We consider the following facilities: LBNE; T2HK; and the 10 GeV Neutrino Factory (NF10), and show how their discovery probabilities change with the running time of T2K and NOvA conditioned to their results.
• We find that, if after 15 years T2K and NOvA have not observed a 90% CL hint of CP violation, then LBNE and T2HK have less than a 10% chance of achieving a 5sigma discovery, whereas NF10 still has a ca 40% chance to do so.