Prediction, Expectation, and Surprise: Methods, Designs, and Study of a Deployed Traffic Forecasting Service

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We present research on developing models that forecast traffic flow and congestion in the Greater Seattle area.

• The research has led to the deployment of a service named JamBayes, that is being actively used by over 2,500 users via smartphones and desktop versions of the system.
• We review the modeling effort and describe experiments probing the predictive accuracy of the models.
• Finally, we present research on building models that can identify current and future surprises, via efforts on modeling and forecasting unexpected situations.