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Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties · Around

2011

Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

Cacciari, Matteo, Houdeau, Nicolas

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We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series.

We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations.
We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series.
We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process.

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