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Trial factors for the look elsewhere effect in high energy physics · Around

2010

Trial factors for the look elsewhere effect in high energy physics

Gross, Eilam, Vitells, Ofer

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When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range.

This is the so called "look elsewhere effect".
The effect can be quantified in terms of a trial factor, which is the ratio between the probability of observing the excess at some fixed mass point, to the probability of observing it anywhere in the range.
We propose a simple and fast procedure for estimating the trial factor, based on earlier results by Davies.

Built on

S.S. Wilks, The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses , Ann. Math. Statist. 9
1938
Earlier work this paper cites.
H. Chernoff, On the distribution of the likelihood ratio , Ann. Math. Statist. 25
1954
Earlier work this paper cites.
R. B. Davies, Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative , Biometrika 64
1977
Earlier work this paper cites.

Similar

R. B. Davies, Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative , Biometrika 74
1987
Cited alongside, same era.
CMS Physics TDR: Volume II, Appendix A.2, J. Phys. G: Nucl. Part. Phys. 34 (2007) 995-1579
2007
Cited alongside, same era.
W. Quayle, Combining chanels with fits , talk given at the PHYSTAT-LHC Workshop, 2007, available at http://phystat-lhc.web.cern.ch/phystat-lhc/program.html
2007
Cited alongside, same era.

Then

For a general discussion see for example L. Lyons, Open statistical issues in particle physics , The Annals of Applied Statistics 2008, Vol. 2, No. 3, 887-915
2008
Later among the works it cites.
L. Demortier, P Values and Nuisance Parameters , Proceedings of PHYSTAT-LHC Workshop, 2007, CERN-2008-001
2008
Later among the works it cites.
Banff International Research Station Workshop on Statistical issues relevant to significance of discovery claims (2010). Workshop site: http://www.birs.ca/events/2010/5-day-workshops/10w5068. Luc Demortier summary talk: http://www.stat.sfu.ca/ lockhart/richard/banff2010/demortier.pdf
2010
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